Why I Don’t Bet
I entered a Triple Crown fantasy game because it was a) free and b) easy.
All I have to do is pick three horses in each race. I don’t even have to rank them—points are distributed on some sort of sliding scale across the whole field.
So I did the obvious:
I picked Dialed In, as the favorite. Surely he’s the favorite for a reason, right? Right? When someone figures out that reason, let me know, because he seemed a whole lot more dialed out than dialed in during the race.
Then I picked Nehro, as a strong contender in a bad spot. Before you congratulate me on my awesome pick, know this: half an hour before our choices were locked in, I decided I liked Archarcharch better for my contender-in-a-bad-spot pick. Whoops. In my defense, I’m on a lot of pain meds. That’s my excuse, and I’m sticking to it.
The I picked Pants on Fire, as a mid-pack contender with a sentimental story. But when I switched Nehro out for Archarcharch, I decided I’d also switch Pants on Fire out for Mucho Macho Man, because everyone was going on about how Rosie wanted to be the first female jockey to win the Derby, but no one was saying “and this is the horse to give her that win.” Besides, I liked MMM’s sentimental story better. This, at least, was a better pick, although not enough to make up for the Nerho/Archarcharch debacle.
So: observe. In a 19-field race, I picked, at one time or another, five horses I thought could win. A whole quarter of the field. Not one of them won.
And one of my picks broke his leg.
Of course, this raises concerns about the Preakness. And the Triple Crown race.
What if I pick the horse you want to bet on? I might as well have been the one who burned your money. What if Animal Kingdom enters and I pick him? There goes the Triple Crown dream for yet another year.
Obviously, it would be a public service for me to avoid picking Animal Kingdom. You can nudge my sense of public duty along by sending me chocolates, if you like. And if there is a horse you really, really want to bet… I accept checks and money orders. I’ll make sure I pick someone (anyone) else. That should increase your odds of winning considerably.
And for a very sizable donation, I’ll send you a list of the horses I’m not even considering, because Animal Kingdom didn’t even cross my radar when I was making selections.
It’s even better than insider knowledge: you’ll have access to the world’s worst betting instincts, in reverse.
Winter says 8 May 2011
Same here. I always tell people to bet against me, that I’ll give them half the money if they split the pot.
I was hoping for another Mind that Bird.